Predictive Modeling and Forecasting for the Transmission and Risk of West Nile Virus

主讲人：朱怀平  加拿大约克大学教授

时间：2021年10月27日9：00

地点：腾讯会议 478 127 447

举办单位：数理学院

主讲人介绍：朱怀平，加拿大约克大学数学和统计系教授，约克大学应用数学首席教授，并行计算与模拟实验室和疾病建模中心主任。长期从事动力系统分支理论及其应用、希尔伯特第十六问题、种群生态学与传染病学的数学建模和应用分析研究、气候变化模拟和影响、以及蚊虫疾病的实时预报和防控等研究工作。在数学及生物数学的国际顶级或高水平期刊上累计发表文章100多篇，在国际著名的微分方程杂志发表了单篇长达112页论文。多次组织举办了动力系统分支理论以及应用，生物数学，气候变化以及影响等学术会议，并先后在重要国际会议做特邀报告20余次。作为项目负责人获得加拿大国家工程和自然科学基金会  (NSERC)，国家创新基金 (CFI)，加拿大健康研究院（CIHR),  加拿大公共卫生部(PHAC)，以及安大略省卫生部、环境部、科技部等部委的资助。2007年曾获安大略省青年科学研究奖。

内容介绍：Weather conditions, such as daily average temperature and precipitation, not  only affect the abundance and the biting behavior of Culex mosquitoes but also  determine the outbreak and spread of West Nile virus (WNV). Early warning  capacity for alerting public health to emerging and re-emerging mosquito-borne  diseases is critical for effective public health response. In this talk, I will  present a recent study of integrating a statistical model for Culex mosquito  abundance with a compartmental model for the transmission of WNV. In this study,  we incorporated both temperature and precipitation into the models to reflect  their impact on the abundance of vector mosquitoes, biting behavior, and  transmission of the virus. The Culex mosquito trap counts from the mosquito  surveillance program and the reported human cases of WNV are used to calibrate  the model. I will show simulation results showing a satisfactory match with the  data. The predictive models together with the weekly weather forecasting of  temperature and precipitation allow us to predict the risk of WNV in the study  area weekly. The simulations from the model suggest that variation in weather  patterns can result in different endemic situations in the region, while the  daily average temperature plays a more important role than precipitation in the  transmission of WNV. If time permits, I will discuss the challenges of  bifurcations and dynamics of models for the transmission of WNV.